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Market Commentary

MMI Holdings Limited (MMI)

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Published: 02 October 2018

Economic and market snapshot for September 2018

In Momentum Investments’ view, an acceleration in structural reforms is imperative to resolve the country’s stark inequality problem.

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Published: 20 September 2018

Interest rates steady at 6.5%, but the balance of sentiment is shifting towards tighter monetary policy

The SARB MPC left interest rates unchanged at 6.5% at the September 2018 interest rate-setting meeting, but noted three out of the seven MPC members had made arguments for an interest rate increase in of 25 basis points.

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Published: 19 September 2018

Another positive inflation surprise for August 2018

In Momentum Investment’s view, lower services inflation, muted currency pass-through and subdued food inflation contributed to the trend in downward surprises in recent months.

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Published: 03 September 2018

Economic and market snapshot for August 2018

SA equities out performed global markets in August 2018, with a weaker rand boosting returns. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index added 2.5.% in the month, supported by industrial and resource shares, while financial shares detracted from gains in overall market.

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Published: 01 August 2018

Economic and market snapshot for July 2018

Better access to social services played a role in driving inward migration into Gauteng and the Western Cape.

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Published: 19 July 2018

Interest rates steady at 6.5%, but a realisation of inflation risks leads to a hawkish stance

Despite an upward revision to the SARB’s inflation projections, sustained currency weakness, international oil prices and higher-than-expected electricity tariffs continue to pose an upside threat to its forecast.

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Published: 18 July 2018

June 2018 inflation print extends string of positive inflation surprises

Consumer price inflation (CPI) came in lower than consensus expectations by 0.2% in June 2018. While the Bloomberg median estimate was expecting a steeper rise in inflation from 4.4% year-on-year (y/y) in May 2018 to 4.8% y/y inJune 2018, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported headline inflation at a lower 4.6% y/y.

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Published: 13 July 2018

Market and economic outlook - July 2018

Momentum Investments expects global equities to still outperform global government bonds as long as the global expansion continues. Meanwhile, government bond market fundamentals remain negative (with rising inflation and some fiscal deterioration), while the wide bond valuation premium with equities still persists.

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Published: 03 July 2018

Monthly economic and market snapshot - June 2018

Growth is expected to pick up in the remainder of year. Momentum Investments expects growth in real economic activity to recover from 1.3% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018, 2.1% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020.

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Published: 20 June 2018

Inflation beats expectations marginally at 4.4%

Food prices are not exerting upward pressure on the inflation basket, but the rand price of oil poses a greater threat. Relative to a year ago, food prices are only 1.6% higher in rand terms, whereas oil prices pose a far larger threat, up 59.1% relative to a year ago.

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